Report: Morocco Pursues Stability and Growth Through Reforms

Doha – According to a recent report by Geopolitical Intelligence Services (GIS), Morocco has made significant strides towards political and economic stability over the past two decades through a series of reforms initiated by King Mohammed VI.

The report highlights how Morocco’s unique governing system and commitment to reform have positioned the country to consolidate its status as a regional middle power, despite ongoing risks and challenges.

In 2011, in response to Arab Spring protests known as the February 20 Movement, King Mohammed VI introduced a new constitution that decentralized power and strengthened Morocco’s democratic institutions.

“While the king continued to hold significant power, the new constitution mandated that the head of government be appointed from the party that wins the most seats in parliament,” the GIS report states. “It also established a constitutional court and promoted a decentralized governance structure.”

The reforms aimed to address demands for greater democracy, including commitments to judicial independence, combating corruption, protecting freedoms, and recognizing Tamazight as an official language alongside Arabic.

The report notes that while some activists argued the monarchy’s role was not reduced enough, the changes were met with “overwhelming approval.”

Economically, Morocco experienced a 27% GDP growth from 2010 to 2018, with rising foreign direct investment and an expanding middle class. However, challenges such as weak growth, high youth unemployment, and a costly subsidy system persisted.

In response, King Mohammed VI launched the “New Development Model” in 2021 to boost economic productivity, invest in human capital, promote social inclusion, and decentralize power and resources to the regions.

The government has also begun phasing out subsidies, most recently on cooking gas in May 2024.

The GIS report highlights several advantages that have enhanced Morocco’s economic competitiveness and diplomatic standing.

According to the report, industrial policies have attracted investment, particularly in the automotive and aerospace sectors, while regulatory reforms have improved the business climate.

The report also notes that Morocco benefits from a stable political environment and limited jihadist activity within its borders, bolstered by effective soft power diplomacy that counters radicalism.

Since rejoining the African Union in 2017, the GIS report states that Morocco has increased its engagement and investment in sub-Saharan Africa. The country has also deepened its relationships with European nations and the United States.

The report further highlights that hosting major events like COP22 and co-hosting the 2030 FIFA World Cup further enhances Morocco’s international profile.

However, the report also identifies persisting vulnerabilities, such as susceptibility to drought, low labor market efficiency, high youth unemployment, and migratory pressures. Brain drain also remains a concern as Morocco transitions to a higher value-added economy.

Looking ahead, the GIS report outlines two potential scenarios. In the most likely case, Morocco’s development will “gain momentum in the coming years as the economy begins to reap the benefits of recent reforms,” buoyed by growth in automotive, tourism, anticipated digital innovations, and hosting the 2030 World Cup. This would allow Morocco to further consolidate its international standing.

The less likely scenario envisions Morocco getting “stuck in a moderate growth trap” due to rising labor costs, slower technology adoption, a still heavily subsidized economy, and potential conflicts with the EU. This could expose the country to “inflationary pressures and potential social unrest” as subsidies are removed.

Ultimately, the GIS report portrays Morocco as a country that has charted a unique path of reform and development in the region, though one that may prove difficult for its neighbors to replicate given their differing political and social contexts.

While risks and challenges remain, Morocco appears well-positioned to continue its trajectory of stability and growth in the coming years.