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Donald Trump’s victory—the first time in nearly 130 years that a former American president has regained the White House—demonstrated a broad and impressive electoral performance. He will very likely become the first Republican presidential candidate in twenty years to win the popular vote. Exit polls show that he won over significant segments of the Democratic voter base, nearly everywhere.
Despite significant political and legal baggage, it seems Trump was a known commodity to millions of Americans. As one New York Times post-election analysis put it: “People saw in him whatever they wanted to see. And they believed that, after so many years, they knew him, and that he knew them, too.”
So, what does President Trump plan to do when his term begins in January? “I will not rest until we have delivered the strong, safe and prosperous America that our children deserve and that you deserve. This will truly be the golden age of America,” Trump said as his victory began to unfold.
America and much of the world are significantly different places than they were when he first took office in January 2017. Crisis in Crimea but no larger war, U.S. consumer inflation under two percent. Mohammad bin Salman had yet to become Saudi crown prince. The battle to free Mosel from ISIS was underway in Iraq. By 2019, the European Union began to seriously formulate strategic autonomy, driven in part by President Trump’s skepticism of NATO’s raison d’être.
Trump’s direct messaging style was on display at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2020. “To embrace the possibilities of tomorrow, we must reject the perennial prophets of doom and their predictions of the apocalypse,” Trump said. His direct message: Talk global but act local.
In 2016, “Make America Great Again” was a catchy phrase. Eight years on, it’s now strategic zeitgeist, with adherents around the globe—from Amsterdam (PVV leader Geert Wilders) to Budapest (Prime Minister Viktor Orbán) to Tel Aviv (Prime Minister Netanyahu) to Buenos Aires (President Javier Milei). Wilders celebrated Trump’s victory with a post on X: “Never stop, always keep fighting and winning elections. Congratulations President Trump! Congratulations America!”
A European Political Community (EPC) summit gets underway in Budapest today. President Trump will be a main topic. Poland’s center-right prime minister, Donald Tusk, reminded fellow European leaders in the summit lead-up that America’s electoral outcomes should no longer constitute the foundation of European security: “Whatever the outcome [US election], the era of geopolitical outsourcing is over.”
Trump promised to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine before he takes office in January, rooted in his penchant for direct high-stakes negotiations but also in a growing belief that the war has reached a prolonged stalemate. He likely wants the Ukraine conflict off his to-do list on January 20.
On trade, President Trump often basked in the high drama of trade tensions with China, the EU, and Mexico during his first term. “The way they will sell their product in America is to build it in America, very simple. Build it in America and only in America. And this very simple formula, and congress has to go along with us and they will,” Trump said in his convention acceptance speech in July.
There will be tough talk on immigration and trade issues but the trade symbiosis between the United States and Mexico is profound, creating momentum for discrete honest dialogue. Trump ally and billionaire Elon Musk will create an interesting dynamic concerning issues of electric vehicles, battery manufacturing and trade tariffs on China. The day after the election, Tesla shares were trading up nearly 15 percent.
In the Middle East, there will be more engagement with core allies in the region like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Israel and the Emirates. Maximum pressure on Iran but Trump will need to follow the lead of Gulf allies who have made a tentative accommodation with their belligerent neighbor.
Post-election Wednesday saw the Dow index rise 1,500 points, the first time the blue-chip market index has gained more than one thousand points in a single day since November 2022. Markets welcomed the election results. A Golden Age?
In ways large and small, Donald Trump has established a strategic agenda model for Europe and beyond that emphasizes a strict cost-benefit analysis. Eight years later, that model seemingly still finds utility.
