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Join on Telegram Doha – After 467 days of relentless Israeli bombardment that has left Gaza in ruins and killed over 46,700 Palestinians, mostly women and children, Israel and Hamas have reached a comprehensive ceasefire agreement mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States.
Set to begin on January 19, the deal will unfold over three distinct phases spanning several months, marking a potential end to one of the deadliest periods in Palestinian history.
The agreement comes as more than 110,000 Palestinians have been wounded and at least 11,000 are missing and presumed dead under the rubble of destroyed buildings across Gaza.
The Israeli Occupation Forces (IOF) have decimated the coastal enclave’s infrastructure, leaving most of its 2.3 million residents displaced and facing severe humanitarian catastrophe.
Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani announced the deal on Wednesday, expressing hope that “this will be the last page of the war.”
However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly dampened expectations, claiming the agreement was incomplete and that “final details” were still being worked out.
US President-elect Donald Trump announced on social media: “We have a deal for the hostages in the Middle East. They will be released shortly.”
In a press conference after the announcement, President Joe Biden shared key details of the plan, explaining that the first phase would last six weeks with a complete ceasefire in Gaza.
“During phase one, Palestinians can also return to their neighborhoods in all areas of Gaza, and a surge in humanitarian assistance in Gaza will begin, and the innocent people can have greater access to these vital supplies,” he said.
But what does this deal really mean for Gaza’s future? Will it lead to lasting peace or just another temporary pause? And most importantly, can the three-phase agreement actually survive the complex web of regional politics and internal opposition from both sides?
Phase one: Immediate relief and complex exchanges
The first phase, spanning 42 days from January 19 to March 1, establishes an immediate cessation of hostilities and sets in motion a carefully orchestrated series of humanitarian measures and prisoner exchanges.
This initial period focuses on three critical components: the release of captives, military repositioning, and humanitarian access.
Under the exchange terms, Hamas will release 33 Israeli captives, including nine who are ill or wounded, along with women, elderly, and children. In return, Israel must free approximately 1,000 Palestinians detained since October 8, 2023.
The exchange follows a specific ratio: 1:3 for Palestinians serving life sentences and 1:27 for those serving other sentences. Additionally, two long-term captives, Hisham al-Sayed and Avera Mengistu, will be freed in exchange for 60 Palestinian prisoners and 47 Palestinians previously released in the 2011 Gilad Shalit deal but later re-arrested.
Military repositioning during this phase requires the IOF to withdraw from densely populated areas, including the six-kilometer Netzarim Corridor – known to Palestinians as the “axis of death.”
This corridor, which spans from the Israeli boundary with Gaza City to the Mediterranean Sea, has been used to control Palestinian movement between northern and southern Gaza.
The IOF must retreat to a perimeter 700 meters from Gaza’s boundary, with five specific locations extending an additional 400 meters.
Humanitarian access will improve gradually. Starting on day seven (January 25), displaced Palestinians can return to northern Gaza via Rasheed Street without arms, while vehicles will be permitted after inspection by a private company chosen by mediators and Israel.
By day 22 (February 9), civilians can return through both Rasheed and Salah al-Din streets without inspection.
The Rafah crossing will reopen for wounded civilians after women captives are released, allowing 50 wounded Palestinian combatants to cross daily with Israeli and Egyptian approval.
Phase two: Broader military withdrawal and further releases
The second phase, beginning no later than February 3 (day 16), focuses on negotiating the release of remaining Israeli captives – approximately 65 people – in exchange for a complete Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza.
This phase includes several key military and humanitarian components that will reshape the territory’s security landscape.
A crucial element involves the Philadelphi Corridor, a 14-kilometer buffer zone along the Gaza-Egypt border. The IOF must begin withdrawing from this strategic area by March 1 (day 42) and complete the pullout by March 9 (day 50).
However, Israeli officials have insisted that no written guarantees be given against resuming hostilities, though Hamas has received verbal assurances from Egypt, Qatar, and the US that negotiations will continue.
This phase represents a paradigm shift in Israel’s position, as Netanyahu had previously declared there would be no withdrawal from certain areas under any truce agreement.
However, Israeli officials maintain they will not fully withdraw unless Hamas’s military and governance capabilities are completely dismantled.
Phase three: Long-term recovery and reconstruction
The final phase, scheduled to begin around April 12 (day 84), addresses the monumental task of rebuilding Gaza and establishing new governance structures.
This phase includes the return of deceased captives’ remains and introduces a comprehensive three to five-year reconstruction plan under international supervision.
The scale of destruction necessitating this reconstruction is staggering. Over 60% of Gaza’s buildings have been destroyed or damaged during the Israeli campaign.
The United Nations has pledged extensive humanitarian assistance, with World Food Programme Chief Cindy McCain confirming that food aid for one million “acutely hungry” people awaits delivery at Gaza’s border.
However, significant challenges remain. The agreement’s implementation has gotten off to a troubling start, with Israel intensifying its attacks on Gaza after the announcement.
Gaza medics reported 32 people killed in air strikes, with attacks continuing through Thursday morning, destroying houses across Gaza City.
This violence in the days leading up to January 19 has heightened concerns about Israel’s commitment to the agreement, especially given its history of violating previous ceasefires.
The governance of post-war Gaza remains a contentious issue to be resolved during these later phases.
The United States has pressed for a reformed version of the Palestinian Authority to administer the territory, but no concrete plans have been finalized.
The success of this phase will largely depend on international support and cooperation among various stakeholders in the region.
The Trump effect: A game-changing influence
The timing and successful negotiation of the ceasefire agreement appear to have been significantly influenced by what incoming National Security Advisor Mike Waltz called “the Trump effect.”
President-elect Trump’s ominous warning that “all hell will break out in the Middle East” unless the captives are released before his inauguration energized the parties to reach a compromise before that deadline.
The impending transition in US leadership has created additional pressure on both sides to finalize the deal. Trump’s administration has made clear that they want a sustainable ceasefire in place by the time they take office.
This stance has particularly influenced Netanyahu’s calculations, as breaking the deal could potentially jeopardize Israel’s relationship with the incoming Trump administration and affect coordination on other regional issues, particularly regarding Iran.
From the Israeli government’s perspective, expectations that the incoming administration will offer strong support on various issues – including confronting Iran, cementing relations with Saudi Arabia, and supporting Jewish settlement in the West Bank – provided extra motivation to placate Trump.
These aspirations are also playing a crucial role in Netanyahu’s effort to maintain his parliamentary majority, despite objections from some of his core allies who oppose any framework that would suspend the pursuit of “total victory” over Hamas.
Netanyahu has been encouraging these critics to remain in the coalition and wait to advance their policy priorities under Trump, though the success of this strategy remains uncertain.
The prime minister, who has repeatedly promised to achieve total victory over Hamas, is now using the prospect of strong support from the Trump administration to help sell this compromise to his hardline allies.
Analysts say Israel must also work with the new US administration and Arab neighbors to strengthen the Palestinian Authority in Gaza and the West Bank, thus offering a political horizon on the basis of what Trump and Netanyahu called the “deal of the century” during the first Trump administration.
According to incoming National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, “Hamas has to be destroyed to the point that it cannot reconstitute.”
However, the possibility of the group’s resurgence – in the absence of any other authority – cannot be discounted, making the implementation and maintenance of this ceasefire agreement crucial for regional stability in the early days of Trump’s presidency.
